CNBC : Return to the Gold Standard?

With gold surpassing record highs in recent sessions, some experts argue governments could re-introduce a return to the gold standard where countries would peg their currencies to the value of gold at a certain level.

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"I think we will easily break $2000 per ounce within a year. The way to think of the gold price is to think of it as a currency against which other currencies depreciate," Irakli Menabde, M2 precious Metals told CNBC Monday.

Although the future of gold as a safe haven remains secure at least in the short term, the ability for it to retain record highs consistently rests on a number of wider macro-economic factors as well as being more attractive than other currencies and bonds.

"When we look at currencies, the Swiss franc has the safe haven status because of its past links with gold. It's assumed safe haven status because it was one of the last currencies to get off the gold standard.

"The money that has been going into the Swiss franc and coming out of it now will likely find its place in the gold market," he added.

Menabde said despite the rapid rise of gold in recent weeks – it hit $1813.79 last Thursday -value remains in the commodity which has yet to see its peak.

"Gold's greatest strength is that it has no default process, no liability. When I hear the word bubble around gold I would argue that it is as undervalued as it was in 2001 and what we are experiencing here is just a re-rating of gold....The problem is we have run out of capital and the system is bankrupt, we are at a monetary juncture.

We are likely to see very high inflation rates in the future and perversely gold could go even higher if we go into a default situation," Ben Davies, CEO at Hinde Capital told CNBC Monday.


My technical analysis 17/08 :

GOLD
Support: 1760.00, 1755.00, 1742.00, 1735.00, 1720.00
Resistance: 1770.00, 1779.00, 1785.00, 1800.00, 1815.00

(silver xsempat nk analyze,,sorry,,tp rasanya remains between 39-40.05 USD/oz )

Technical Analysis 16/8

Silver
Support: 38.75, 38.25, 37.95, 37.30, 36.60
Resistance: 39.35, 39.75, 40.10, 40.40, 40.90

Gold
Support: 1735.00, 1720.00, 1707.00, 1687.00, 1681.00
Resistance: 1755.00, 1760.00, 1770.00, 1779.00, 1800.00

Technical Analysis

Gold

Despite drawing a bearish candlestick formation that sent the metal lower towards 1732.00 zones, but the sharp rebound from there to the current level was so impressive confirming the IM-impulsive- nature of the present wave. The secondary image of the four hour interval is evidence that, the metal has found a solid support around the aforesaid support levels. This support succeeded n assisting gold in creating a bullish four hour shape. In fact, breaching through 1782.00 will be a vey positive indication, but we will be neutral today once more since risk versus rewards ratio is very high.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1694.00 and key resistance now at 1830.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside, targeting $ 1888.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1755.00, 1740.00, 1735.00, 1720.00, 1707.00
Resistance: 1770.00, 1779.00, 1800.00, 1815.00, 1830.00

LANGKAH BIJAK KERAJAAN NEGERI KELANTAN:Dinar: Masa lancar RM323, hari ini RM809

Laporan Rizal Tahir dalam harakahdaily memperincikan butiran kenyataan YB Dato' Husam Musa berkenaan dengan kekukuhan Dinar dan Dirham dalam keruduman harga saham dunia.

KOTA BHARU, 10 Ogos: Langkah Kerajaan Kelantan memperkenalkan Dinar dan Dirham sebagai aset untuk rakyat di negeri ini menabung merupakan jalan yang tepat apabila satu dinar yang dilancar empat tahun lalu bernilai RM323 hari ini meningkat RM809.

Pengerusi Jawatankuasa Perancangan Ekonomi, Kewangan dan Kebajikan negeri, Datuk Husam Musa, berkata peningkatan itu merupakan sejarah dalam  kenaikan harga emas dunia. Beliau berkata demikian kepada media selepas mesyuarat exco di sini sebentar tadi.

Menurutnya, harga emas pasaran dunia pula hari ini meningkat kepada USD1,723 dan ianya merupakan satu sejarah dalam kenaikan harga emas.“Mana-mana masyarakat yang sebelum ini membeli emas mendapat keuntungan yang besar dan rugi sekiranya tidak berbuat demikian bagi mereka yang mampu.”Bagaimanapun sekarang kita masih boleh membelinya kerana ia belum terlewat memandangkan harga emas pasaran dunia akan naik lagi mencecah USD3,000,” ujarnya.

Menurutnya, memandangkan kerajaan negeri menyedari perkara ini PMBK Sawit sejak awal lagi melabur sumber kewangannya di sebuah bank di negeri ini sebanyak RM1 juta. Tambahnya, keuntungan yang diperolehi dalam tempoh lebih sebulan RM130,000. Ketika ditanya berhubung pihak tertentu mengkritik tindakan kerajaan negeri sebelum ini, beliau berkata kritikan itu hanya kerana sentimen politik. ”Mereka mengkritik bukan kerana takut rakyat tidak akan mendapat sebarang manfaat sebaliknya kerana dendam politik terhadap kerajaan negeri yang didokongi PAS,” ujarnya.

Sehubungan itu, beliau menyeru masyarakat seluruhnya supaya melabur serta meningkatkan pelaburan masing-masing kerana keuntungannya bakal diperolehi lebih besar khususnya penghujung tahun ini.

Menurutnya, kejatuhan dolar Amerika yang tidak berjaya mengekang kewangan ekonominya disamping jumlah hutang yang kian banyak, akan memberi ruang kenaikan keuntungan harga emas pada masa akan datang. 

TAHNIAH KEPADA YANG SUDAH MENUKAR ASET KEPADA EMAS..ANDA BILA LAGI..??
"RENUNG-RENUNGKAN & SELAMAT MELABUR SAMBIL BERAMAL"

Gold Expansion Target

Gold has been unstoppable as the uncertainty among fiat currencies and risk aversion prompted safety demand, and with the USD hurting, JPY and CHF both weakened slightly by intervention, gold continues to soar as it does not have any prospect of intervention at all.

There is a bearish divergence, but that has not been a good signal for reversal. Or rather, the consolidation after the divergences have been insignificant.

However aside from the bearish divergence, there is a couple other signs that gold might need a break before further rally.

The sharp slide currently is parabolic and has a chance of being a blow-off rally. We might not see the final blow-off, but in the short to medium term, a correction is not inconceivable.

Also, the market has completed a 9-wave rally since the 1478.10 low. This is the structure of a motive wave when there is an extension in one of the smaller waves. By no means however does it mean we can't have further extension, but it does look like an extended 5th, with a blow-off in the 5th.

A bearish scenario in the very short-term can materialize if the market falls below the 1731.45 pivot.
However, a bearish scenario might be contained above 1680, so 1680 should be the maximum target for a strong break and close below 1730.

Expansion Target:
Gold will be sensitive to risk sentiment. A bit of risk appetite coming back can help stall gold's historic rally.
However, the market is prone to buy on dips at the moment, so shorting gold requires a lot of "agility"
The bullish targets for gold can be projected using a fibonacci expansion tool.
We have already hit range breakout target at 1670 and a wave equality projection near 1725. Now, 150% expansion can be the next target near 1860.