Jangkaan Pasaran Emas Perak Tahun 2012

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Silver to $49.73 in April

I believe the short squeeze that took Silver to $49.73 in April has taught the commercials how tight the physical silver market actually is, and that the commercials "appear to have no interest in massively shorting silver again". As a result, I look for silver to make massive gains in the near futures, as the commercials turn and go net long, resulting in $50 silver appearing "cheap" in the near future.

The big commercial silver shorts had a near death experience when the price approached $50 in April. They were at the end of their rope and needed to do something in a hurry. That’s why they rigged prices lower; so that they could buy and save themselves. These well-connected commercials knew, perhaps for the very first time, just how tight the silver market had become and how close we were to a profound physical shortage. The key is that the silver shortage wasn’t caused by excessive speculative buying or a bubble or a mania. The extreme tightness and near shortage in silver was as a result of the gradual and cumulative impact of normal investment buying over the past five years. There is nothing to suggest that the long term and steady silver investment buying has ended.

Because there was no bubble or mania in silver, there was no bubble to burst. The orchestrated take-downs of the price by the big commercial interests were simply so that these commercials could buy and rid themselves of Silver short positions. That’s done now. That means that the silver market is now in the best possible shape.

What lies ahead for silver is exciting. While we have not witnessed a bubble in silver yet, we will some day. The silver story and the dynamics of the market are too compelling for an investment mania not to emerge at some point. If anything, speculative sentiment has been completely wrung out from silver, clearing the way for speculators and investors to enter the market with a vengeance.

At some point, enough of the world’s industrial silver users will panic as prices climb and attempt to build physical silver inventories. This user buying, something that never kicked in during the run to $50 will create a silver shortage, the likes of which never witnessed before. It seems that the big commercial interests have come to learn the real silver story and they appear to want no part of the short side again. The major pressure of selling has passed...and the way seems clear for higher prices. By the time the next chapter in the silver story plays out, $50 could look cheap. (By Ted Butler)

Twelve bullish factors for gold in 2012

Jeff Nichols still believes that gold prices will go above $2000/oz in 2012. He forecasts $2000 levels in the first half of 2012 and in the longer term, the yellow metal is expected to ride higher to $3000, $4000, $5000. Because of the following twelve factors, he still believes in a yellow metal rally in 2012.


Twelve bullish factors for gold in 2012
 
--Past and prospective U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, characterized by low or negative real rates of interest and unprecedented central bank monetary creation.

--The U.S. federal government budget impasse, rising U.S. sovereign debt, and eroding U.S. creditworthiness.

--The expected future depreciation of the U.S. dollar in world currency markets . . . and the continuing decline in the dollar’s purchasing power for American consumers.

--The growing insolvency of some European nations - leading to the disintegration of Europe’s Monetary Union and the eventual abandonment of Europe’s common currency, the euro, by at least some of the EU member countries.

--The expected acceleration of global inflation - fueled by excessive monetary creation, world population growth, and changing diets in favor of more meat and protein . . . and led by persistently high and rising agricultural and industrial commodity prices from one country to the next.

--The increasing political instability in the Middle East and North Africa . . . as authoritarian regimes are overthrown . . . but sectarian divisions in some countries prevent orderly transitions to democracy . . . with implications for world oil supplies and prices. And then, of course, there is Iran - which remains an unpredictable “wild card.”

--The growing affluence of the “emerging-economy nations” and the associated growth in both jewelry and private investment and savings demand for gold - especially here in China - as well as India and other gold-friendly countries.

--The development and popularity of new Gold investment vehicles and channels of distribution - especially gold exchange-traded funds - that facilitate physical gold investment by both retail and institutional investors.

--The legitimization of gold as an investment class and rising investor participation . . . together reflecting a growing appreciation of the benefits of including physical gold in a well-diversified portfolio . . . and the entry of new, large-scale, professional investors - including pensions, endowments, insurance companies, sovereign-wealth funds, and especially hedge funds.

--The “stickiness” of much of the recent private sector and central bank gold demand. This is shrinking the available “free float” in the world gold market . . . and it means that less metal will be available to gold-hungry buyers, except at increasingly higher prices. Indeed, many of today’s new investors have no intention of ever selling, even at much higher prices.

--- Eleventh bullish factor, one that I believe is especially important to the long-term development of the gold market - is the affect this rising wealth is having on emerging-economy central banks . . . prompting some countries that are over-weighted in U.S. dollars and underweighted in gold to diversify their official reserves through the prudent acquisition of the yellow metal.

--And, twelfth in my catalog of bullish factors supporting a continuing long-term rise in the price of gold is the fact that world gold-mine production, although growing, will not keep pace with the expected growth in global gold demand. Even a rash of new mine discoveries would take five to 10 years - or more - to contribute significantly to supply . . . and, meanwhile, existing resources are being depleted, nationalized by unfriendly governments who tend not to be good mine operators, or are simply mined out.