What happen to silver ?

Silver has followed a repetitive spike, crash, and consolidate pattern during this silver bull market.  The bulk of each crash lasted approximately two months, so if this crash follows the same pattern it should bottom sometime in June.  Then silver should stage a recovery rally.  The recovery rally has tended to be followed by a consolidation period, where silver just grinds sideways.  If the crash is the “scare you out” phase, then the consolidation after the recovery rally is the “wear you out” phase.  The goal of both of these phases is to recreate the wall of worry necessary to drive the next major rally.

Markets typically need time to repair the damage after a crash and that is essentially what the recovery rally and consolidation phases accomplish.  It usually takes a period of time and multiple attempts for a market to overcome the resistance created by a sharp crash.  Therefore silver investors should adjust their expectations and prepare for a sideways grind after the current crash has run its course.  Expecting silver to race back up to 50 and make new highs right away is not out of the realm of possibility, but it isn’t probable based on how markets normally behave.

Based on past precedent the new trading range for silver is likely to be from the mid-20s to the recent high right below 50.  There’s some support on the chart between 26-30 and this zone also resides underneath the 200-day moving average, so that area would likely prove tough to penetrate to the downside.

It should be interesting to see how long it takes silver to repair the damage done before it can attempt to stage a real breakout past 50.  One important thing to note about bull markets is they tend to overcome corrections quicker as the bull market becomes more mature and accelerates to the upside.  This next chart of the tech bull market shows how the market consolidated for years at a time early in the bull market, but later in the bull market it only took a matter of months to complete each consolidation period.

next.big.trade.com

Silver dip will be brief

Silver dipped below $36/oz. this morning, down about 8% from yesterday, and down about 27% from the high last week of about $49.50/ per troy ounce.

Some people are saying "this is like 1980 all over again" and that silver will now crash.  Nothing could be further than the truth.

The truth is
1. The amount of money they have printed up since 1980 is ten times higher, so if you adjust for inflation, the peak price from 1980 should be more like $500/oz. in today's dollars.

2. In 1980, interest rates, the amount paid on bonds, rose to over 20% per year.  Today, interest rates are close to zero.  Interest rates make holding bonds more attractive.

3.The US government money printing driven inflation is just beginning, it's not remotely close to ending.  The US annual budget is about $3.8 trillion, and the government collects about $2.2 trillion, leaving a gap of about $1.6 trillion that is met by money printing, which makes the value of the dollar go down.

$1.6 trillion of new money can also expressed as $1600 billion, or $1,600,000 million.
For comparison's sake, new investment demand for physical silver last year was only 250 million ounces, at, let's say an average of $35/oz., was just under $9 billion, or only $9000 million.
Silver is not in a bubble in terms of prices.

The bubble in stocks in 1929 was caused by debt financing.
The bubble in housing in 2007 was caused by debt financing.
You cannot borrow money to buy silver. Thus, silver is NOT in a bubble.

Exceptions:  Yes, you can borrow money to speculate in silver, but no silver is ever purchased at the time that you purchase futures, or options on silver.  And the futures market is known for having an overall open interest of over 800 million oz. of silver, while less than 40 million oz. of silver are available for delivery!

Yes, also certain private firms, who have horrible reputations in my opinion, will let you borrow money "to buy silver", but you must keep the silver with them, and it's doubtful that they ever actually purchase the real silver either.

In silver's case, the availability of debt, and use of leverage is used to prevent you, distract you, dissuade you, from actually buying silver.  This makes silver an "anti-bubble"; the opposite of a bubble.

When debt is used to actually buy real silver, the extra buying would artificially push the price up.
When banks actually owe silver that they neglected to actually purchase, their lack of buying artificially pushes the price down.
Again, silver is the opposite of a bubble.

People have not yet learned that silver is payment in full.  Silver is not a promise to be paid.  Owning a promise to be paid in silver is about as bad as owning paper dollars -- the value of both of which has (primarily and fundamentally) only one way to go, which is down.

Government is in a bubble.  US paper money is in a bubble.  The US bond market remains in a bubble.
Somebody just posted to my facebook, "everybody is selling out", "Soros is selling  his gold", etc.
No, the opposite is true.  Nobody was ever in (cause they don't have physical material)

The real fundamentals of silver show that less than 6% of 1% of paper money in the USA even bought any real silver last year. That means that silver buying would have to be 20 times more, just to get to about 1% of people buying silver!

Silver the opposite of a bubble.  This dip will be brief.  Silver at $200/oz. is still a "price dip" compared to where the silver price is headed.

I strongly advise you to take possession of real gold and silver, at anywhere near today's prices, while you still can.   The fundamentals indicate rising prices for decades to come, and a major price spike can happen at any time.

Jason Hommel, Grass Valley, CA

Kawalan Emosi Dalam Pelaburan

Kawalan Emosi Dalam Pelaburan 

OK, saya nak share tentang kawalan emosi semasa kita melabur. kawalan emosi adalah sangat penting...seperti yang pernah dikatakan olen Warran Buffet " if you cannot control your emotions, you cannot control your money". Awal minggu ini ramai yang telah membuat lock emas dan perak disebabkan penurunan harga comodities ini disebabkan oleh geopolitical issue (kematian Osama bin Laden) khususnya. Di dalam tabloid Wallstreet Journal sepanjang minggu ini sibuk memperkatakan tentang isu tersebut dan kesannya yang hanya melonjakkan US dollar untuk sementara waktu.

Dan semalam, harga comodities terus turun, dan banyak yang berkata RUGI kerana membuat belian di awal minggu. Jangan lah kita merasa rugi. Setiap pelaburan itu pastinya ada untung dan rugi. Jangan kita menilai dalam jangkawaktu yang pendek kita telah rugi. Kita hanya rugi dari segi jumlah pembelian, tetapi kita masih belum rugi kerana kita telah selamatkan duit kita dari dimakan inflasi. Janganlah baru 4 hari kita membeli emas dan perak, dan harganya turun dalam jangkamasa 4 hari ini dikatakan rugi, ini adalah persepsi yang salah.

Flactuation on price tetap akan berlaku, mana ada satu pun pelaburan di dalam dunia ini yang hanya menunjukkan kenaikan sahaja, MUSTAHIL!! Comodities sangat sensitif dengan isu2 semasa, lantaran pemahaman tentang perkembangan isu semasa adalah sangat penting. Janganlah kita merasa rugi, disebabkan kejatuhan harga dalam jangkawaktu yang pendek. Insyallah dengan impak dari isu semasa yang melanda dunia ini hanyalah bersifat sementara. Jika kita sudah membeli pada harga yang tinggi, sekiranya ada modal lagi kita beli lagi di waktu rendah...amalkan dollar cost averaging. Ini akan mengurangkan harga tinggi yang anda beli sebelum ini.

Kepada anda yang masih belum melabur dalam emas dan perak, anda adalah orang yang boleh dikatakan sebagai RUGI! Selak surat khabar minggu lepas, cari berapakah peratusan inflasi dalam suku tahun pertama. Wang kertas anda akan dihakis oleh inflasi sekiranya anda tidak tukarkan dengan emas dan perak. Bak kata orang putih "when inflation occurs, gold prevails"....

Kepada yang nak mula menceburkan diri dalam pelaburan emas dan perak, masih belum terlambat untuk mula. Better be late than never !!

Sharing is caring..
(Pli Pwm)

Silver Will Fly High

5 reasons why silver prices would go up despite this correction

1. Robust industrial demand
2. Bullion coin demand
3. Global inflation
4. ETF fund flows
5. Weak dollar

Robust industrial demand
Over the next five years, silver demand is slated to rise to 666 million ounces which would form 60% of total fabrication demand. The figure is a 36% increase over 2010’s demand of 487 million ounces; according to GFMS Ltd. The demand from the industry forms lion’s share of silver fabrication demand.

Silver use is surging in electronic and thermal equipments. Stronger industrial demand from US and Asian countries like India and China through 2015 would keep silver prices up.

Silver coin demand

Recently, director of Canada’s Royal Mint reportedly told that sourcing of silver was becoming “very difficult” with prices of the commodity climbing.

Silver prices and Canadian Maple Leaf and the Silver Eagle should go a lot higher so that people would find it attractive to sell.

Global inflation

Inflation is surging around the globe and people are eager for a hedge which they found in silver bullion. Global inflation made silver to touch an all time high in the international market recently ($49.820 on Comex).

ETF fund flows into silver
Silver assets being held by the ETFs dropped 1.1% to 15,169.80 metric tons on Tuesday in the event of correction in markets.
But, with the above said fundamentals being strong, it is highly unlikely that ETF fund flows into silver would dwindle.

Weak Dollar
Weak dollar gives buyers the necessary appetite for silver as well and the commodity surged almost 4% on the US futures market to a 31-year high of USD 47.90 recently. With the US debt at historic high levels, and QE2 in progress, the chances are that dollar will continue to remain weak unless the interest rates are hiked in US. But, this is a remote possibility.

Back in the past,.silver, touted the poor man's gold, was reportedly depressed artificially for a while by certain quarters. But strict norms, later effected changed the horoscope of the commodity. Fundamentals, rather than speculation began to drive silver.

May be the rally is silver’s cathartic exercise!

Bagaimana Pasaran Akan Datang?

Alhamdulillah, selesai juga semua urusan untuk hari ini (tapi hakikatnya dah masuk hari baru..huh..) Dari awal pagi lagi hp ni menerima sms dan call tak henti-henti bertayakan pasaran emas semasa. Harga emas dan silver yang turun pada awal dagangan pagi tadi membuatkan mereka-mereka@pembeli yang bijak, mengambil kesempatan untuk menerus meng'lock' harga dalam kuantiti yang besar. Ramai juga kawan-kawan yang mulanya hanya diatas pagar, tetapi akhirnya tidak ketinggalan untuk memulakan langkah membeli emas bagi tabungan masa hadapan.

Perkiraan saya tentang perspektif pasaran akan datang adalah baik bagi emas. Ini kerana dollar akan terus melemah walaupun bank-bank di amerika mengekalkan kadar interest pada 0-0,25%. Masyarakat kini makin bijak berbelanja dan mulai berfikir panjang sebelum membuat apa-apa pinjaman dengan pihak bank. 

Bank pusat yang duhulunya menjualkan rizab simpanan emas mereka, kini mulai melirik-lirik manja untuk membeli semula ketulan emas kuning itu untuk memperkukuhkan rizab simpanannya sekaligus mengurangkan kebergantungan terhadap Dollar US. Mereka mulai sedar, dollar kian melemah dan tindakan harus dilakukan segera.

Al-hasil permintaan terhadap precious metal (emas,silver dll) akan terus meningkat dan melonjakkan harga ke paras tertinggi yang belum pernah dicatatkan dalam sejarah ekonomi dunia. Sama-sama kita nantikan rekod baru precious2 metal ini..hihi..

Kepada mereka yang masih ragu-ragu dan menginginkan penjelasan lanjut. Mulakan langkah anda sekarang !! Hubungi dealer-dealer kami yang berhampiran dengan anda untuk maklumat lanjut.
Bersama kita membangun ekonomi diri, keluarga dan ummah.

' 8 ' reasons why Gold is going up

Gold is up by 7.6% for the year till date and for the year of 2010, gold ended higher by 30% that saw a decade of gold rally (on an annual basis) culminating in another one. Let us see the eight factors driving up the gold prices:

1. Near-zero interest rates in US

On last Wednesday when Federal Reserve decided to keep the interest rates in a range of zero to 0.25%, gold prices rose higher. The said interest rate range has been maintained since December 2008.

As long as the US keeps interest rates low, the demand for gold would be robust and so would be its prices, analysts say.

2. Weak dollar

Weak dollar gives buyers the necessary appetite for gold. On last Friday, the Comex Gold jumped $25.2 or 1.7%, to touch $1556.4 on weak dollar. This was the fifth consecutive monthly decline of dollar.

Analysts expect the slump to continue in the future. Gold prices always go opposite to the US dollar vectors.

3. Global inflation

It would be a cliché to tell that commodity prices are rising around the globe. And whenever inflation has risen, people have rushed to secure gold as a hedge.

Metals consultancy GFMS predicts that gold prices will jump past $1,600 this year, driven primarily by fears of high inflation.

4. Weak Europen recovery

The debt crisis in Europe is worrying and may spread to US and Japan, accoridng to GFMS Ltd  the situation would perk up the demand for gold further and hence prices could go further up.

5. Central bank buying

The central banks have been on a gold buying spree since 2010. They became net buyers of gold last year, for the first time in two decades and added 87 metric tons in official sector purchases by countries including Sri Lanka, Mauritius and Bolivia.

Russia alone purchased 8 tons of gold in the first quarter. This shopping frenzy has reportedly added to the price of gold.

6. Asian demand

India and China are bitten by yellow fever. In 2011, the yellow metal exhibited a robust demand in India. The trend is continuing as per the World Gold Council report.

In China, the peak season for gold arrives in the first quarter along with New Year and Chinese New Year holidays. This resulted in consumers purchasing gold to give away as gifts; particularly in the cities.

In Vietnam, jewellery demand got a fillip in Q1 2011, climbing by more than 5 tons relative to the previous quarter– the Gold Investment digest by World Gold Council said.

All these factors add to the prices.

7. Chinese rate hike

China has hiked interest rates several times this year to tame domestic inflation. Naturally, the rally in base metals subsided and what used to go to copper and other base metals flowed to precious metals like gold and silver.

Gold prices climbed.

8. Normal monsoon

In India normal monsoons have always bode well for farmers. And most of the farmers living in India turn to gold for investment after a robust harvest, since most of them do not possess a bank account.

This time around, normal monsoons have been predicted and gold prices are slated to go up when other factors are considered: Akshaya Tritiya, marriage season etc.