Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Federal Reserved Menari Twist


Kalau anda tengok carta emas atau perak semalam, mungkin akan sakit jantung dibuatnya. Terutamanya perak, dari harga spot $40 terus menjunam ke $30. Tetapi setiap kali insiden pergerakan harga pasaran berlaku dengan mendadak, sudah pasti ada tangan yang tersembunyi cuba memanipulasi harga pasaran.

Kita perlu bertanya, kenapa harga menjunam ? Adakah ada lambakan bekalan ? Adakah ada instrumen lain yang lebih menarik yang menghasilkan pulangan yang lebih tinggi ?

Adakan semua ini boleh berlaku dalam masa 3 jam sahaja ??

Apa Sebenarnya Berlaku ?

Sehari sebelumnya, pengerusi Federal Reserved, Ben Bernarke membuat pengumuman untuk melancarkan Operation Twist. Secara ringkasnya operasi ini adalah untuk memanipulasi pasaran bond Amerika. (berita disini)

 

Kenapa pasaran bond ?

Bond secara umum merupakan satu sijil atau perjanjian yang dikeluarkan oleh kerajaan atau badan swasta untuk mengumpul dana untuk melaksanakan sesuatu aktiviti. Ianya seperti satu perjanjian pinjaman, dimana pembeli sijil ini akan dijanjikan pulangan balik dalam bentuk dividen tahunan.

Dalam kes Operation Twist hari ini adalah bond kerajaan.

Bond yang dikeluarkan oleh kerajaan biasanya stabil, dimana kerajaan negara tersebut akan membayar balik faedah tepat dan seperti yang dijanjikan. Ini menjadikan bond sebagai salah satu “safe heaven” terutamanya negara yang mempunyai status kredit yang tinggi seperti AAA (sebab itu bila US kena “downgrade” huru hara dibuatnya).

Kerana ianya stabil, ianya dijadikan sebagai rujukan piawai untuk agensi kredit seperti bank untuk menetapkan kadar faedah pinjaman. Jadi faedah pinjaman perumahan atau kereta anda ada hubung kaitnya dengan pulangan bond ini. (jadual bond Malaysia)

 

Matlamat Operation Twist

 

Jika anda selalu mengikut perkembangan US Dollar dan Federal Reserved terutamanya Ben Bernarke, anda boleh lihat idealogi yang digunakan ialah

Ekonomi berkembang dengan berbelanja.
Bermakna, wang mesti terus bergerak didalam sistem kewangan untuk memacu pembangunan ekonomi. Dan dalam kamus Federal Reserved, berbelanja = pinjam lebih banyak wang.

Dan untuk mencapai matlamat ini (mengalakan pinjaman) faedah mesti rendah.
Pulangan bond agak pelik, tetapi saya tidak akan huraikan disini. Ada banyak sumber lain anda boleh rujuk seperti disini. Umumnya bila harga bond naik, pulangannya turun dan begitu juga sebaliknya.

Perlaksanaan Operation Twist adalah dimana Federal Reserved akan menjual bond jangka masa pendek untuk mengumpul dana. Dana ini kemudianya akan digunakan untuk membeli bond jangka panjang.

Jadi mengunakan konsep “supply and demand”, apabila bond jangka masa pendek dijual dengan banyak akan berlaku lambakan. Ini akan menyebabkan harganya jatuh dan pulanganya meningkat.

Dan apabila bond jangka masa panjang banyak dibeli dengan banyak, menyebabkan kekurangan bekalan. Ini akan menaikan harga bond tersebut dan menurunkan kadar pulangan.

Jadi apabila Federal Reserved berbuat demikian, pulangan bond jangka masa pendek naik dan jangka masa panjang menurun, dan secara teorinya akan meneutralkan (purata) pulanganan bond dan menurunkan lagi kadar pulangan bond, terutamanya jangka masa panjang.

Rajah dibawah adalah ilustrasi dimana pulangan bond cuba dinuetralkan pada 2%



Apabila ini berlaku, kadar faedah pinjaman akan turut turun, dan mengalakkan lagi pinjaman.

Impak Kepada Orang Ramai (secara teori)

 

Apabila faedah semakin rendah, untuk orang kebiasaan seperti kita, ini akan mengalakkan kita untuk membiayai semua pinjaman rumah dengan faedah lebih murah atau mendapakan pinjaman peribadi dengan kadar yang lebih menarik. Atau peniaga untuk mendapatkan pinjaman yang lebih baik untuk mengembangkan perniagaan

 

Apa Yang Berlaku Petang Semalam ?

 

Sehari selepas Ben Bernarke mengumumkan Operation Twist, pasaran emas dan perak terus merundum. Manakala USD bertambah kuat.

Jadi pada pendapat saya, memandangkan Ekonomi Eropah yang semakin tenat, semasa pasaran London dibuka petang semalam, pelabur dari Eropah berpusu-pusu memindahkan asset pelaburan mereka dari Euro ke USD. Kerana mereka berpendapat Operasi Twist ini sedikit sebanyak akan memberi pulangan yang lebih berbanding pelaburan asset di Eropah.

Pemindahan asset ini menyebabkan permintaan USD yang meningkat menyebabkan harga pasaranya mengukuh.

 

Adakah Ianya Akan Berhasil ?

Ramai yang tindakan ini tidak akan berhasil kerana pulangan bond US sudah terlalu rendah. Berapa rendah lagi mereka boleh pergi untuk mendapatkan impak maksima ?


Cara ini pernah dilakukan sebelum ini pada tahun 1960, namun ianya hanya menurunkan kadar faedah sebanyak 0.15%.

Pada pendapat saya, ini hanya sementara kerana ianya satu bentuk manipulasi atau penipuan. Ianya tidak akan bertahan lama.Usah tergugat dengan permainan angka pihak barat.


p/s : Tidak ramai yang berjaya menjangkakan pasaran emas @ silver akan jatuh sejauh ini. Kebanyakan dari kita hanya mengambil sikap tunggu dan lihat atau hanya 'gamble' menjualkan asset kita. Ini kerana kebanyakkan indikator-indikator gagal menunjukkan sebarang hasil yang memuaskan. Jika anda tergolong dalam pelabur@pemegang emas fizikal sempat menjualkan emas anda pada harga yang tinggi dahulu dan berjaya membeli semula dengan harga yang lebih rendah itu adalah bonus buat anda. Namun, sekiranya tidak..usah anda khuatir..usaha anda menukarkan fiat anda sebenarnya juga telah menguntungkan anda. Ingat menyimpan emas dan perak ini adalah untuk middle and long term investment.

by : petibesi

Monday, September 26, 2011

Technical Analysis 26/09/2011

Gold
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1492.00 and key resistance now at 1785.00.
The general trend over the short term basis is to the upside targeting 1945.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1475.00 remain intact with weekly closing.

Support: 1575.00, 1540.00, 1525.00, 1490.00, 1475.00
Resistance: 1610.00, 1635.00, 1648.00, 1673.00, 1702.00


Silver
The trading range for this week is among the key support at 22.50 and key resistance now at 31.20.
The short-term trend is to the downside targeting 26.65 as far as areas of 48.50 remain intact.

Support: 27.15, 26.10, 25.55, 24.95, 24.25
Resistance: 28.85, 29.15, 30.20, 30.85, 31.20

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Speculators bring gold prices down, to resume uptrend soon !!

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Speculators who pushed up Gold prices to record highs have brought the prices down but the yellow metal may begin its comeback sooner rather than later, possibly in the next few days, according to Jeff Nichols, renowned precious metals economist and Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors.

Although physical demand in world bullion markets remained firm, it seemed to me that the price was moving up too fast too soon as institutional speculators extended their “long” positions in “paper” derivative markets, he said.

"Now - rather than any dramatic reversal in world physical markets - it looks like the precipitous price decline in recent days can be blamed entirely on these same speculators (including some prominent hedge funds and the trading desks of the big Wall Street banks) reversing their positions or cashing out of gold altogether.

Nothing that has occurred in the past few days in any way diminishes my long-term enthusiasm about gold-price prospects.  The same bullish gold-market fundamentals and macroeconomic trends that I have been discussing for many years now remain in place and promise significantly higher Gold prices over the next five years or longer.

Admin comments : 

The correction in gold prices has been modest at 15% so far and it is not unusual considering the pace of growth in prices this year.

Reason that gives an impact to gold price:

1) Gold falling victim to excessive volatility
Over the last month gold has made a new record high twice but has also been exposed to three 100+ dollar corrections. This has at least near-term reduced the safe haven flows as the increased volatility has made it increasingly difficult to trade and has prompted some gold bulls moving to the sideline to wait for lower prices and hopefully calmer trading conditions. 

2) During the same time investors in ETFs and futures have reduced exposure to gold by nearly 300 tonnes to 2,935 tonnes as cash and/or bonds have met increased demand.

3) U.S. government and its allies in Western Europe strive to suppress the price of gold so that market can remain active.( check this )


However there is still some evidence that give us some hint the gold price will shoot up again after this correction.

1) Malta bought 3,000 ounces of gold
European central banks have become net buyers of gold for the first time in more than two decades, the latest sign of how the turbulence in the currency and debt markets has revolutionized the bullion market. Malta has bought 3,000 ounces of gold. Mexico, Russia, South Korea and Thailand have all made large purchases this year, in a move to reduce their exposure to the dollar. Globally, central banks are set to buy more gold this year than at any time since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system 40 years ago — the last time the value of the dollar was linked to gold. European central banks have added about 25,000 ounces, or 0.8 tonnes, of gold to their reserves in the year to date, according to data from the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

2) Israel issues first gold coin (recently 21/09/11)
The Israel Coins and Medals Corp. on Wednesday unveiled the first Israeli gold coin, coinciding with Jerusalem Day. The gold coins are valuable as collector’s items and as financial investments. The Tower of David edition will be limited to 3,600 coins. In addition, there is a strict limit of five gold coins per customer. The coins in the series are now legal tender and are issued by the Bank of Israel. 

Take this opportunity of correction time to buy as many gold as u can, so that there will be no regrets in future !!

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Russia Says IMF Chief Jailed For Discovering All US Gold Is Gone

Sekadar berkongsian artikel mengenai permainan ekonomi di barat. Telah tiba masanya untuk kita bertindak dan bersedia menghadapi zaman kemelesatan ekonomi  dunia (dunia kian berubah -kuasa baru akan muncul-).  Bertindaklah segera wahai sahabat, nilai duit kertas semakin luntur..kuasa membeli semakin berkurang..harga barangan semakin mahal..kadar inflasi semakin tinggi..ini semua antara tanda-tanda kehancuran monopoli ekonomi dibarat telah bermula. Berpeganglah kepada sesuatu yang lebih bernilai dan diterima secara universal (logam-logam berharga-emas&perak). Moga kita sentiasa berpegang kepada AlQuran & AsSunah dan moga kita sentiasa berada dalam lindungan payungNYA.

Abu Bakr ibn Abi Maryam reported that he heard the Messenger of Allah, [may Allah bless him and grant him peace] say: "A time is certainly coming over mankind in which there will be nothing [left] which will be of use, save a dinar and a dirham(GOLD and Silver)" - Musnad Imam Ahmad ibn Hanbal.


'sharing is caring'


By: Sorcha Faal, and as reported to her Western Subscribers
 

A new report prepared for Prime Minister Putin by the Federal Security Service (FSB) says that former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn [photo with Putin top left] was charged and jailed in the US for sex crimes on May 14th after his discovery that all of the gold held in the United States Bullion Depository located at Fort Knox [photo 2nd left] was ‘missing and/or unaccounted’ for.

According to this FSB secret report, Strauss-Kahn had become “increasingly concerned” earlier this month after the United States began “stalling” its pledged delivery to the IMF of 191.3 tons of gold agreed to under the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement signed by the Executive Board in April 1978 that were to be sold to fund what are called Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as an alternative to what are called reserve currencies.

This FSB report further states that upon Strauss-Kahn raising his concerns with American government officials close to President Obama he was ‘contacted’ by ‘rogue elements’ within the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) who provided him ‘firm evidence’ that all of the gold reported to be held by the US ‘was gone’.

Upon Strauss-Kahn receiving the CIA evidence, this report continues, he made immediate arrangements to leave the US for Paris, but when contacted by agents working for France’s General Directorate for External Security (DGSE) that American authorities were seeking his capture he fled to New York City’s JFK airport following these agents directive not to take his cell-phone because US police could track his exact location.

Once Strauss-Kahn was safely boarded on an Air France flight to Paris, however, this FSB report says he made a ‘fatal mistake’ by calling the hotel from a phone on the plane and asking them to forwarded the cell-phone he had been told to leave behind to his French residence, after which US agents were able to track and apprehend him.  

Within the past fortnight, this report continues, Strauss-Kahn reached out to his close friend and top Egyptian banker Mahmoud Abdel Salam Omar to retrieve from the US the evidence given to him by the CIA. Omar, however, and exactly like Strauss-Kahn before him, was charged yesterday by the US with a sex crime against a luxury hotel maid, a charge the FSB labels as ‘beyond belief’ due to Omar being 74-years-old and a devout Muslim.

In an astounding move puzzling many in Moscow, Putin after reading this secret FSB report today ordered posted to the Kremlin’s official website a defense of Strauss-Khan becoming the first world leader to state that the former IMF chief was a victim of a US conspiracy. Putin further stated, “It’s hard for me to evaluate the hidden political motives but I cannot believe that it looks the way it was initially introduced. It doesn’t sit right in my head.”  

Interesting to note about all of these events is that one of the United States top Congressman, and 2012 Presidential candidate, Ron Paul [photo bottom left] has long stated his belief that the US government has lied about its gold reserves held at Fort Knox.  So concerned had Congressman Paul become about the US government and the Federal Reserve hiding the truth about American gold reserves he put forward a bill in late 2010 to force an audit of them, but which was subsequently defeated by Obama regime forces.  
When directly asked by reporters if he believed there was no gold in Fort Knox or the Federal Reserve, Congressman Paul gave the incredible reply, “I think it is a possibility.”

Also interesting to note is that barely 3 days after the arrest of Strauss-Kahn, Congressman Paul made a new call for the US to sell its gold reserves by stating, “Given the high price it is now, and the tremendous debt problem we now have, by all means, sell at the peak.”

Bizarre reports emanating from the US for years, however, suggest there is no gold to sell, and as we can read as posted in 2009 on the ViewZone.Com news site:
“In October of 2009 the Chinese received a shipment of gold bars. Gold is regularly exchanges between countries to pay debts and to settle the so-called balance of trade. Most gold is exchanged and stored in vaults under the supervision of a special organization based in London, the London Bullion Market Association (or LBMA). When the shipment was received, the Chinese government asked that special tests be performed to guarantee the purity and weight of the gold bars. In this test, four small holed are drilled into the gold bars and the metal is then analyzed.
Officials were shocked to learn that the bars were fake. They contained cores of tungsten with only a outer coating of real gold. What's more, these gold bars, containing serial numbers for tracking, originated in the US and had been stored in Fort Knox for years. There were reportedly between 5,600 to 5,700 bars, weighing 400 oz. each, in the shipment!”

To the final fate of Strauss-Kahn it is not in our knowing, but new reports coming from the United States show his determination not to go down without a fight as he has hired what is described as a ‘crack team’ of former CIA spies, private investigators and media advisers to defend him.

To the practical effects on the global economy should it be proved that the US, indeed, has been lying about its gold reserves, Russia’s Central Bank yesterday ordered the interest rate raised from 0.25 to 3.5 percent and Putin ordered the export ban on wheat and grain crops lifted by July 1st in a move designed to fill the Motherlands coffers with money that normally would have flowed to the US.

The American peoples ability to know the truth of these things, and as always, has been shouted out by their propaganda media organs leaving them in danger of not being prepared for the horrific economic collapse of their nation now believed will much sooner than later.    

© May 31, 2011 EU and US all rights reserved. Permission to use this report in its entirety is granted under the condition it is linked back to its original source at WhatDoesItMean.Com

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Salam Lebaran dan Maaf Zahir Batin

Assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera rakan-rakan,,,

Rasanya masih belum terlambat untuk saya mengucapkan selamat hari raye dan maaf zahir batin kepada semua yang beragama Islam. Maaf kerana dah lama x update blog ini,,al maklum le cuti raya katakan,,,^_^

So dikesempatan ini saya nak berkongsi satu artikel yang saya rasa agak menarik dan penting untuk kita ketahui tentang pelaburan emas ini. Banyak artikel-artikel di internet yang menyatakan bahawa harga emas kini berada di dalam kedudukan bullish@ dalam bahasa mudahnya terlalu tinggi. Namun tahukah kita sebenarnya nilai duit fiat@duit kertas terutamanya dollar amerika (USD), sebenarnya melampaui nilai bullish emas itu sendiri (lebih tinggi 5-10 x ganda dari nilai dolar yang sebenarnya). Ini kerana kerajaan amerika terus menerus mencetak duit untuk memeriahkan pasaran saham di Amerika. Al hasilnya, duit kertas USD terus menerus susut nilainya belum. Kesan yang paling mudah ialah harga barangan terus menerus meningkat kerana dek inflasi yang melambung (masih banyak lagi kesan2 lain yang kita sedari mahupun yang tidak kita sedar).

Mungkin cerita yang saya kongsikan diatas ini sudah ramai yang tahu,,hehe,,xpe,,kerana itu bukan cerita utama yang saya ingin kongsikan.

Cuba lihat hutang USD yang TERBARU (14 TRILLION) , belum termasuk hutang lama ye  :



Ini baru masuk cerita2 undergound yang best untuk dikongsikan bersama,,,

So, untuk mengelakkan dari susutnya nilai dolar dan euro dimata masyarakat dan untuk terus menyemarakan pasaran saham dunia (SAHAM= sebenarnya hanya perubahan angka dalam acc,,xada duit fizikal yang bertransaksi sebenarnya), kuasa2 utama dunia sebenarnya MENEKAN HARGA EMAS SUPAYA HARGANYA TERUS STABIL DI TAHAP RENDAH,,Ya,,RENDAH,,!!

Kenapa US (yang kononnya kuasa ekomoni dunia) berbuat demikian. Jawapan sungguh mudah, ia untuk menampakkan yang nilai USD itu tidak terlalu jauh perbandingannya dengan harga emas. So sebenarnya harga emas masih ditahap normal bukannya bullish seperti yang dikatakan. Ia hanya mainan media untuk membantu mengstabilkan nilai dolar itu sahaja. Rakan2 boleh merujuk kenyataan dari artikel wikileaks dibawah :


China knows about gold price suppression, and U.S. knows China knows (Wikileaks - 2009 cable)

6:47p ET Saturday, September 3, 2011
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
China knows that the U.S. government and its allies in Western Europe strive to suppress the price of gold, and the U.S. government knows that China knows, according to a 2009 cable from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing to the State Department in Washington.
The cable, published in the latest batch of U.S. State Department cables obtained by Wikileaks, summarizes several commentaries in Chinese news media on April 28, 2009. One of those commentaries is attributed to the Chinese newspaper Shijie Xinwenbao (World News Journal), published by the Chinese government's foreign radio service, China Radio International. The cable's summary reads:
"According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration, China's gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the United States and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don't want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar's role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries toward reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the renminbi."
It's hard to believe that, two years later, China is still leaving so much of its gold with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England when even little Venezuela has publicly figured out the gold price suppression component of the Western fractional reserve banking system and is attempting to repatriate its gold from the Bank of England and various Western bullion banks:
It is already a matter of record that China dissembled about its gold reserves for the six years prior to the public recalculation of its gold reserves in April 2009 that prompted the commentary in Shijie Xinwenbao. At that time China announced that its gold reserves were not the 600 tonnes it had been reporting each year for the previous six years but rather 76 percent more, 1,054 tonnes:
ZeroHedge, which seems to have broken the story of the Beijing embassy cable this evening, comments:
"Wondering why gold at $1,850 is cheap, or why gold at double that price will also be cheap, or, frankly, at any price? Because, as the following leaked cable explains, gold is, to China at least, nothing but the opportunity cost of destroying the dollar's reserve status. Putting that into dollar terms is, therefore, impractical at best and illogical at worst. We have a suspicion that the following cable from the U.S. embassy in China is about to go not viral but very much global, and prompt all those mutual fund managers who are on the golden sidelines to dip a toe in the 24-karat pool."
The ZeroHedge commentary can be found here:
In addition to fund managers throughout the world, this cable may be of special interest to the gold bears CPM Group Managing Director Jeff Christian, who says he consults with most central banks and that they hardly ever think about gold, and Kitco senior analyst Jon Nadler, who insists that central banks have no interest whatsover in manipulating the gold price.
In fact, of course, gold remains the secret knowledge of the financial universe, and its price is actually the determinant of every other price and value in the world.
The Beijing embassy cable can be found here:

So kepada yang masih teragak2 untuk membeli emas@menunggu harga jatuh (fluctuation dalam harga pasaran emas tetap ada kerana pemain2 saham yang besar tetap menyimpan dalam bentuk emas sebagai salah satu dari portfolio pelaburan mereka), anda boleh berbuat demikian namun diharapkan agar anda tidak terlalu berharap harga yang rendah kerana potensi harga emas untuk mencecah USD2250-USD3000 adalah besar dalam waktu-waktu yang terdekat ini.