NEW YORK : Morgan Stanley expects
gold prices to remain bullish for 2012 but sees risk to oil prices. The
bank forecasts gold prices to average $1845/oz in 2012 while oil prices
are expected to average $105/barrel
On oil, even though the bank expects prices to average $105/barrel in
2012, current high prices are likely to slow demand and support more
production by OPEC causing "bearish inventory trends". In a bear case
scenario, oil prices could fall to as low as $85/barrel
On gold, the bank states that “…Recent coordinated actions by six
central banks and separate actions by the ECB suggest that non-gold
related measures to ease access to USD swaps will be successful,
reducing downside pressure on the gold price”
The bank expects gold prices to climb to $2175/oz by 2013 with prices
depending on 4 bullish factors - decline in producer hedging, decline
of developed market central bank sales, inability of gold mines to
increase gold supplies materially and the long term growth in physical
investment demand.
