Harga emas telah mencatatkan kenaikan sebanyak 27% pada tahun ini.
Emas telah mencatatkan kenaikan harga yang luar biasa untuk tempoh beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini. Harga dagangan emas pada akhir Disember 2009 adalah sebanyak USD1,085 per ounce dan telah mencatatkan kenaikan sehingga USD1,380 per ounce iaitu kenaikan sebanyak 27 peratus pada hari ini!
Malah kenaikan tertinggi dicatatkan setakat ini adalah pada 9 November 2010 iaitu pada harga USD1,421 per ounce!
- sumber : www.kitco.com
Tiada timbul sebarang keraguan tentang penyebab harga emas melonjak sedemikian rupa ataupun dalam term englishnya ‘bull market’. Hampir kesemua pakar analisis ekonomi dunia bersetuju dengan fakta “quantitative easing” ataupun pencetakan wang kertas secara berleluasa oleh Bank Dunia menjadi faktor utama pelabur-pelabur beralih arah kepada pelaburan aset nyata yang lebih selamat (emas fizikal).
Bertindak sebagai penyimpan nilai yang paling selamat dalam keadaan ekonomi dunia yang serba tidak menentu, emas kembali memainkan peranan utamanya seperti di zaman lampau. Secara khususnya, pelabur-pelabur menggunakan emas sebagai pelindung nilai aset mereka terhadap inflasi.
George Soros, pelabur yang terkenal di dunia pernah membuat taruhan sebanyak $ 10 bilion dengan Bank of England pada tahun 1992 dan beliau telah menang,. Beliau berkata pada Januari lepas: “Ketika kadar faedah bank adalah rendah, kita menghadapi keadaan asset bubble dan kesannya semakin terasa pada saat ini. Asset Bubble paling utama adalah emas. ” Namun dia menambah bahawa membeli pada saat awal sebelum harga emas melonjak pada paras lebih tinggi adalah “rasional” dan dana yang dimiliki oleh George Soros mempunyai aset emas yang paling tinggi pada tahun ini.
So what does the future hold for gold? Is Mr Soros right – should investors expect the price to collapse as the bubble bursts? Or will the West’s continuing loose monetary policies mean that demand will remain high, pushing the price up further still?
Over the next couple of years at least, analysts expect the price to keep rising.
“The worry is that the West’s borrowing continues while interest rates remain very low,” said Mr Brebner. (causing rising bank debt). “The question is, when will conditions revert to normal? There are economists with Nobel Prizes who don’t know the answer – we have never been in this situation before. And if investors don’t understand what’s going on, they revert to what they know, such as gold.
“The gold market is responding to risk. Is this rational? I think it is.”
Mr Brebner predicted a gold price of $1,450 next year and $1,600 in 2012, with the chance that it could go higher still. But he warned that if the price went closer to $1,800 or $2,000 there was also “a strong possibility of moving into bubble-type territory”.
He added: “We are seeing things – quantitative easing – that we have never seen before. So the bubble level is hard to fix. But if it reaches those $1,800 or $2,000 levels, I would recommend taking stock and looking at the fundamentals – are the central banks going to print even more money? Is there still a sovereign debt crisis in the West?
“We don’t believe there is currently a bubble in the gold price. But as the consensus in favour of gold builds, one could develop.”
Ms Tremblay said: “If the dollar’s position has come under question, there does not appear to be a readily available substitute in terms of another ‘fiat’ currency. The eurozone’s peripheral issues have dented the euro’s status as the alternative reserve currency. This context of increasing uncertainty has benefited gold.”
She added that interest in gold was “broad-based”, with investment demand rebounding because of fears over the eurozone, continued buying by central banks and seasonally strong demand from the jewellery sector. “At the same time, economic growth, particularly in emerging markets, is supportive of industrial demand for gold,” she said.
“Consequently, we have raised our 2011 gold price forecast to $1,500. If we see the gold rally extending in 2012, it will take place at a more moderate pace. We expect gold to average around $1,600 in 2012.”
Analysts at Investec were less bullish, however. They agreed that gold was likely to trade at $1,500 by the third quarter of 2011 but predicted that it would remain between $1,400 and $1,500 over the following year, before starting to fall in the later part of 2012 to a “long-term” price forecast of $950.
“We forecast a decline (or possibly even a reversal) in investment demand once developed markets illustrate a real return to economic growth,” they said. “Even with a bullish outlook for jewellery demand, we do not believe this will be sufficient to fill the supply gap. We expect this outcome during a period when global production is expanding. Hence we forecast the gold price to fall from late 2012.
“We expect institutional investment to be the primary mover out of gold once the removal of a possible gold boom detracts from maintaining gold allocations and as other assets again offer better returns under reduced levels of risk.
“In late 2012, we think selling of more liquid forms of gold such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will begin.”
Marcus Grubb of the World Gold Council said: “Since the beginning of 2010, the rising gold price has been driven by macroeconomic factors as well as continued support for gold from its diverse consumer base.
“From an investment perspective, institutional and retail investors have continued to recognise the benefit of gold as a long-term preserver of wealth against continued economic weakness in the US and the possibility of yet more quantitative easing, as well as sovereign risk and fears about the stability of the euro.
“In addition, there has also been strong support from the jewellery sector despite the high gold price, with demand being particularly robust in traditional markets, such as India and China. Demand from the industrial sector also staged a recovery in 2010.”
